Global Market Commentary – April 2025
April 2025 was a historic month for stock markets, which declined rapidly upon President Trump’s announcement of huge international trade tariffs, then rose almost as quickly when he reined back on them.
April 2025 was a historic month for stock markets, which declined rapidly upon President Trump’s announcement of huge international trade tariffs, then rose almost as quickly when he reined back on them.
Recent data has hinted at a divergence between the US and UK/EU economies, with signs of an economic slowdown in the States coinciding with Britain and Europe rebounding from a period of stagnant GDP growth. Having been neglected for several years post-Brexit, there is hope that UK stocks may finally prosper given a more favourable macroeconomic environment.
Investors enter 2024 with optimism -
Global stocks closed 2023 with their fourth largest annual return of the last twenty years. But those gains mostly came from a narrow group. The seven largest companies in the US - Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Facebook & Tesla – returned a colossal 111% on average.
Last month we said ‘the key economic indicators could prove not too hot, nor too cold, but just about right for investors to feel comfortable’. There can certainly be no doubt about the stock market’s favourite fairy tale after November’s gains: Goldilocks wins, hands down. With inflation cooling rapidly and GDP and employment figures remaining stable on both sides of the Atlantic, the stock market has shaken off the bears and moved markedly higher.
The first half of 2023 produced good returns from overseas stock markets, as most economies proved more resilient than expected, despite forecasts of a recession at the beginning of the year. As the second half of 2023 progresses, those gains are being given back as higher interest rates and rising oil prices are taking their toll once again.
Most of August felt like a return to 2022, with the US Dollar Index strengthening considerably (+4%) and signaling a risk-off move which has seen stocks and bonds decline together. However, the final few trading days saw material gains as inflation, employment and savings data suggested the overheating US economy may be cooling down. Investors are keen to see the end of interest rate hikes and a return to stable financial conditions.
In what was a poor year for investors, the fourth quarter saw gains for stock markets led by Asian and European markets. Read more of our investment insights for the last quarter of 2022.
Against a backdrop of slow global growth, stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates and growing geo-political tensions, markets continued to perform poorly in Quarter 3.
The year so far has been tough, certainly one that will have tested the stamina of many investors. Our summary of 2022 provides an overview of markets so far.
Our latest webinar recording suggests it's never too early to discuss inheritance and with inflation and the cost of living dominating headlines we also provide an information update on the markets.
The first Quarter of 2022 was dominated by the invasion of Ukraine continuing the market's rollercoaster ride.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is deeply concerning on many levels, creating the largest humanitarian crisis in Europe for decades. Growing sanctions against Russia is adding to market volatility. Looking after our clients' investments is our highest priority.