Posts Tagged markets

We enter 2026 with US stocks dominating the global market while trading on expensive valuations. A small number of tech stocks account for a large portion of US returns and they are increasingly tied to the fortunes of the AI industry. These are certainly risks to be aware of.

Stocks had a small dip in November, before recovering back towards their previous highs. The longest US government shutdown in history had a negative effect, before coming to an abrupt end and allowing stocks to rally.

Another month, another gain for stock markets. It can’t continue like this forever and there are clear signs of profit-taking in some of the most popular trades. This feels like a test to see whether a renewed bout of “buy-the-dip” behaviour will drive stocks to fresh highs once the US government re-opens.

2025 is proving to be a case study for those who believe time in the market is more important than timing the market.

April 2025 was a historic month for stock markets, which declined rapidly upon President Trump’s announcement of huge international trade tariffs, then rose almost as quickly when he reined back on them.

Recent data has hinted at a divergence between the US and UK/EU economies, with signs of an economic slowdown in the States coinciding with Britain and Europe rebounding from a period of stagnant GDP growth. Having been neglected for several years post-Brexit, there is hope that UK stocks may finally prosper given a more favourable macroeconomic environment.

Investors enter 2024 with optimism -
Global stocks closed 2023 with their fourth largest annual return of the last twenty years. But those gains mostly came from a narrow group. The seven largest companies in the US - Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Facebook & Tesla – returned a colossal 111% on average.

Last month we said ‘the key economic indicators could prove not too hot, nor too cold, but just about right for investors to feel comfortable’. There can certainly be no doubt about the stock market’s favourite fairy tale after November’s gains: Goldilocks wins, hands down. With inflation cooling rapidly and GDP and employment figures remaining stable on both sides of the Atlantic, the stock market has shaken off the bears and moved markedly higher.

The first half of 2023 produced good returns from overseas stock markets, as most economies proved more resilient than expected, despite forecasts of a recession at the beginning of the year. As the second half of 2023 progresses, those gains are being given back as higher interest rates and rising oil prices are taking their toll once again.

Most of August felt like a return to 2022, with the US Dollar Index strengthening considerably (+4%) and signaling a risk-off move which has seen stocks and bonds decline together. However, the final few trading days saw material gains as inflation, employment and savings data suggested the overheating US economy may be cooling down. Investors are keen to see the end of interest rate hikes and a return to stable financial conditions.

In what was a poor year for investors, the fourth quarter saw gains for stock markets led by Asian and European markets. Read more of our investment insights for the last quarter of 2022.

Against a backdrop of slow global growth, stubbornly high inflation, rising interest rates and growing geo-political tensions, markets continued to perform poorly in Quarter 3.