Global Market Commentary – October 2024
The cost of borrowing has risen sharply in the past few weeks for the UK and US governments. This has caused stock markets to pause for breath after making strong gains.
The cost of borrowing has risen sharply in the past few weeks for the UK and US governments. This has caused stock markets to pause for breath after making strong gains.
Asia remains the centre of attention on the back of a major Chinese stimulus program which has triggered a sharp rally in its stocks. This comes after two months where Japan experienced significant currency volatility and a “flash crash” in its stocks.
2024 has been a very good year for investors so far, with stock markets in the UK, US and Europe all reaching record highs. Signs of weakness have emerged in recent weeks, as companies report their latest earnings: valuations in the US are high and some profit taking has occurred. The UK stock market appears cheaper, with an improving economy to boot. Many investors believe inflation is finally under control.
2024 always promised to be a busy year for elections, with one half of the world’s population heading to the polls. As far as financial markets are concerned, political surprises have now bubbled up in several countries within a short period of time. With much still to be decided by voters, there is greater uncertainty in the short-term investment outlook. However, inflation remains on a declining path in the UK, US and Europe, while economic growth appears strong.
Recent data has hinted at a divergence between the US and UK/EU economies, with signs of an economic slowdown in the States coinciding with Britain and Europe rebounding from a period of stagnant GDP growth. Having been neglected for several years post-Brexit, there is hope that UK stocks may finally prosper given a more favourable macroeconomic environment.
STOCKS BEGIN TO MOTOR -
In June 2023 we asked whether a new bull market had begun. Nine months later, we have our answer. The MSCI World index moved to new all-time highs in February. The US and Japanese stock markets have led the way, while others are yet to catch up - including the UK’s.
Last month we said ‘the key economic indicators could prove not too hot, nor too cold, but just about right for investors to feel comfortable’. There can certainly be no doubt about the stock market’s favourite fairy tale after November’s gains: Goldilocks wins, hands down. With inflation cooling rapidly and GDP and employment figures remaining stable on both sides of the Atlantic, the stock market has shaken off the bears and moved markedly higher.
For investors, February proved something of a mixed bag following very strong performance from risk assets in January.
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