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Global Market Commentary – January 2025

A Rollercoaster Start to the Year -
2025 has begun with the market’s focus flipping between different topics at a lightning pace. Firstly, government bond yields spiked higher and created alarm about budget deficits. However, lower inflation data made those fears subside and led to a strong rally...

Global Market Commentary – New Year’s Review

We are at a point in time where US stocks are dominating all others, in terms of both their outright size and the strength of their returns. In 2024, the MSCI USA index gained 24.6%, almost double the 12.4% return achieved by the rest of the world (MSCI World ex-USA). However, 2025 does bring a mixed outlook for unemployment and inflation, in the US and elsewhere, therefore it will be interesting to see if investment returns can remain so strong in the coming year.

Global Market Commentary – November 2024

The re-election of Donald Trump to the US Presidency has caused another large rise in US stocks, which were already doing very well. Indeed, his “America first” ideology is reflected in the way US stocks have outperformed others recently.

Global Market Commentary – October 2024

The cost of borrowing has risen sharply in the past few weeks for the UK and US governments. This has caused stock markets to pause for breath after making strong gains.

Global Market Commentary – September

Asia remains the centre of attention on the back of a major Chinese stimulus program which has triggered a sharp rally in its stocks. This comes after two months where Japan experienced significant currency volatility and a “flash crash” in its stocks.

Global Market Commentary – July

2024 has been a very good year for investors so far, with stock markets in the UK, US and Europe all reaching record highs. Signs of weakness have emerged in recent weeks, as companies report their latest earnings: valuations in the US are high and some profit taking has occurred. The UK stock market appears cheaper, with an improving economy to boot. Many investors believe inflation is finally under control.

Global Market Commentary – June

2024 always promised to be a busy year for elections, with one half of the world’s population heading to the polls. As far as financial markets are concerned, political surprises have now bubbled up in several countries within a short period of time. With much still to be decided by voters, there is greater uncertainty in the short-term investment outlook. However, inflation remains on a declining path in the UK, US and Europe, while economic growth appears strong.

Global Market Commentary – May

Recent data has hinted at a divergence between the US and UK/EU economies, with signs of an economic slowdown in the States coinciding with Britain and Europe rebounding from a period of stagnant GDP growth. Having been neglected for several years post-Brexit, there is hope that UK stocks may finally prosper given a more favourable macroeconomic environment.

Global Market Commentary – March 2024

STOCKS BEGIN TO MOTOR -
In June 2023 we asked whether a new bull market had begun. Nine months later, we have our answer. The MSCI World index moved to new all-time highs in February. The US and Japanese stock markets have led the way, while others are yet to catch up - including the UK’s.

Global Market Commentary – 2 February 2024

A Steady Start to 2024 -
The year has begun on a tentative footing following the excesses of November and December, when asset prices galloped higher. Investors have paused to reflect on the ‘wall of worry’ that is said to accompany most bull markets. 

Global Market Commentary – New Year’s Review

Investors enter 2024 with optimism -
Global stocks closed 2023 with their fourth largest annual return of the last twenty years. But those gains mostly came from a narrow group. The seven largest companies in the US - Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Facebook & Tesla – returned a colossal 111% on average.

Global Market Commentary – November 2023

Last month we said ‘the key economic indicators could prove not too hot, nor too cold, but just about right for investors to feel comfortable’. There can certainly be no doubt about the stock market’s favourite fairy tale after November’s gains: Goldilocks wins, hands down. With inflation cooling rapidly and GDP and employment figures remaining stable on both sides of the Atlantic, the stock market has shaken off the bears and moved markedly higher.