Posts Tagged Global Markets

2024 has been a very good year for investors so far, with stock markets in the UK, US and Europe all reaching record highs. Signs of weakness have emerged in recent weeks, as companies report their latest earnings: valuations in the US are high and some profit taking has occurred. The UK stock market appears cheaper, with an improving economy to boot. Many investors believe inflation is finally under control.

2024 always promised to be a busy year for elections, with one half of the world’s population heading to the polls. As far as financial markets are concerned, political surprises have now bubbled up in several countries within a short period of time. With much still to be decided by voters, there is greater uncertainty in the short-term investment outlook. However, inflation remains on a declining path in the UK, US and Europe, while economic growth appears strong.

Recent data has hinted at a divergence between the US and UK/EU economies, with signs of an economic slowdown in the States coinciding with Britain and Europe rebounding from a period of stagnant GDP growth. Having been neglected for several years post-Brexit, there is hope that UK stocks may finally prosper given a more favourable macroeconomic environment.

STOCKS BEGIN TO MOTOR -
In June 2023 we asked whether a new bull market had begun. Nine months later, we have our answer. The MSCI World index moved to new all-time highs in February. The US and Japanese stock markets have led the way, while others are yet to catch up - including the UK’s.

A Steady Start to 2024 -
The year has begun on a tentative footing following the excesses of November and December, when asset prices galloped higher. Investors have paused to reflect on the ‘wall of worry’ that is said to accompany most bull markets. 

Investors enter 2024 with optimism -
Global stocks closed 2023 with their fourth largest annual return of the last twenty years. But those gains mostly came from a narrow group. The seven largest companies in the US - Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Facebook & Tesla – returned a colossal 111% on average.

Last month we said ‘the key economic indicators could prove not too hot, nor too cold, but just about right for investors to feel comfortable’. There can certainly be no doubt about the stock market’s favourite fairy tale after November’s gains: Goldilocks wins, hands down. With inflation cooling rapidly and GDP and employment figures remaining stable on both sides of the Atlantic, the stock market has shaken off the bears and moved markedly higher.

October was another difficult month for investors - the culmination of three consecutive months where stocks and bonds have declined together. However, the US and UK central banks provided “dovish” statements on November 1st and 2nd, stating policy is adequately restrictive in light of slowing inflation. Markets are now forecasting that further interest rate hikes are highly unlikely and have entered the new month on a positive note.

The first half of 2023 produced good returns from overseas stock markets, as most economies proved more resilient than expected, despite forecasts of a recession at the beginning of the year. As the second half of 2023 progresses, those gains are being given back as higher interest rates and rising oil prices are taking their toll once again.

Most of August felt like a return to 2022, with the US Dollar Index strengthening considerably (+4%) and signaling a risk-off move which has seen stocks and bonds decline together. However, the final few trading days saw material gains as inflation, employment and savings data suggested the overheating US economy may be cooling down. Investors are keen to see the end of interest rate hikes and a return to stable financial conditions.

Although April was a relatively quiet month from a financial markets perspective, despite market concerns, stocks have generated good returns so far in 2023.

In what was a poor year for investors, the fourth quarter saw gains for stock markets led by Asian and European markets. Read more of our investment insights for the last quarter of 2022.