Budget Preview and Rural Seminars – the GWA crystal ball…
With borrowing costs climbing and economic growth faltering, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to find new revenue sources and that is stirring speculation about both fiscal drag and stealth taxes and also potential tax increases.
Could Manifesto Pledges Be Broken?
Labour pledged not to raise taxes on “working people,” which rules out hikes to Income Tax, VAT, and employee National Insurance. However that does not mean other levers are off the table:
- Threshold Freezes: Extending the freeze on Income Tax thresholds beyond 2028 is a likely option. It is a stealth tax that quietly pulls more earners into higher bands as wages rise.
- ISA & Pension Tweaks: There has been prolonged speculation regarding reducing taxfree allowances for high earners or trimming the 25% tax-free pension lump sum. Those fears have not entirely receded despite some encouraging words in recent weeks.
Will We See a New Tax Like a Wealth Tax?
The idea of a Wealth Tax is gaining traction:
- A group of global economists recently urged the UK to introduce a 1–2% annual tax on assets over £10 million, potentially raising £22–24 billion a year.
- A cross-party group of MPs has formally proposed this in Parliament.
- However, critics warn of capital flight, investor pullback, and implementation challenges. The UK is already seeing a record outflow of millionaires in 2025.
What’s Most Likely?
A Wealth Tax remains politically risky, and is practically difficult, more subtle reforms like tightening Capital Gains Tax or Inheritance Tax rules are very much on the table. Once again, extending threshold freezes could be the Government’s way of raising revenue without technically breaking its manifesto pledges. However, the three biggest earners in terms of Government revenues are Income Tax, NICs and VAT, and if there is a need to raise funds, then it seems likely that some changes will be made here (even if only to freeze allowances).
Autumn Budget & Rural Seminars Update
At the time of going to print, the date for the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement has yet to be confirmed. As always, we will provide our comprehensive Budget Review once the announcement has been made.
In addition, we are pleased to share that we are planning two Autumn Rural Seminars. One in Berwick-upon-Tweed and another in the Haddington area—scheduled for late November and early December 2025. These events will focus on unpicking the key points from the Autumn Budget, with a panel discussion offering expert insight into the issues affecting landowners, farmers, and rural business owners.
Further details, including dates and registration information, will be shared via email and across our social media channels.
